Poli-102 quiz 8

Causes of war:
- Separatism.
- Fragile and failed states.
Where wars are fought:
- Africa, Eastern Europe, Middle East.
How wars are fought:
- Increasing use of technology.

- 20th century: land, sea, and air wars fought mostly by big powers.
- 21st century: mostly centered around fragile and failed states (**“new wars”).

- Weak institutions.
- Separatism.
- Demographic pressures.
- Youth unemployment.
- Human migration.
- Economic crisis.

- Group grievance (e.g., racial/ethnic minorities).
- Polarized elites.
- Economic crisis.
- Many IDPs and/or refugees.
- High inequality.
- Poor public services.
- Weak rule of law.

- Yemen
- Somalia
- South Sudan
- Syria
- Central African Republic
- DR Congo
- Chad
- Afghanistan
- Zimbabwe

- The “revolution in the military affairs” (from text).
- Increasing reliance on technology.
- 1991: Gulf War (after Iraq occupation of Kuwait): use of “smart weapons.”
- Unmanned aerial vehicles (drones).
- Used for surveillance and for attacks.

Types:
- Cyber espionage.
- Cyberwarfare as influencing and propaganda.
- Cyberwar as aggression.

- #1 cyberwar.
- Prime goal: gaining information.
- Security, business, politics, technology.

- Aggressive actions beyond influencing and espionage.
- Cyber-attacks are “the greatest non-environmental threat” to human society (WEF).
- Potential targets: infrastructure, energy networks, communications, stock markets, defense sector, aviation networks.

2010: Stuxnet virus (US/Israel) targeted Iran’s nuclear centrifuges.
2020:
- Iranian cyberattacks on Israeli water and sewage plants.
- Israeli retaliation on Iranian ports.
- Russian attack on Ukrainian electrical grid.
- UN officials targeted by North Korea.
- US defense industries targeted by China.

In 2020, Solarwinds – a US internet security company – was hacked.
- Foreign entities were able to spy on many companies and federal agencies for months.
- Federal agencies included Defense, Treasury, Homeland Security and Energy, among others.
- Very large coordinated attack; likely only from state actor.
- Generally thought to be Russia.

2017: Russian state agencies attacked by WannaCry malicious software.
- The malware was produced by the US NSA and stolen by hackers.
2020: Russian companies lost $49 billion US from hacking. 2021: Colonial Pipeline in US attacked with ransomware by DarkSide hacking group (probably under Russia protection).

80% of business cyber espionage targeting US companies comes from China.
The International Civil Aviation Organization was hacked by Chinese sources.

- Chinese companies and state agencies were targeted from an Indian source from 2012-2021.
- China’s entire country code (“.cn”) was taken down for seven hours in 2013.
- China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation discovered spyware in its network in 2006.

- **NPT: Non-Proliferation Treaty (1970). 190 signatories today.
- **ABM: Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (1972). Both sides agree to not build a shield.*
- **MAD: mutually assured destruction (deterrent).
- INF: Intermediate Nuclear Forces (1987). Affected shorter-range weapons.*
- START: Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (1991).
- SORT: Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (2002).
- New START (2011) – just renewed by Biden and Putin.

- Tactical Nuclear Weapons.
- Not precisely defined, but shorter range: 300-400 miles or portable.
- Not designed to destroy cities, but smaller targets.
- Can be rockets, but also artillery shells, land mines, depth charges, and torpedoes.
- Concerns: potentially destabilizing: easily concealed; subject to theft.

- Proliferation to non-nuclear countries.
- Theft of technology and weapons-grade fuel.
- Rogue states such as North Korea and Iran.
- Indian/Pakistan hostility.
- Current hostilities in Ukraine.