1complex system thinking
most people view things as physical vs bio vs social, complex system thinkers view based on interaction (it is cross disiplinary)
2if scale a fractal up by a scale factor of s, how many times larger will the fractal be?
S^D = ans
3reductionist thinking
A reductionist would break the system down into its smallest individuals and their interactions, and say that once we understand these, we know everything about the system.
4Features of a complex system
Non-linearity
Heterogeneity
Emergence
Multi-scale dynaics
Far from equilibrium
strong transitions
memory
feedback loops
5Non-linearity
small changes in the neighbourhood or rule can have a large effect
6Heterogenity
diverity across components in the system e.g. attribute, behaviours or states
7emergence
the whole is more than the sum of its parts
8multi-scale dynamics
often lack a characteristic scale
9historical vs CS modelling
predicitive vs explanatior and exploratory
realism vs instrumentalism
reductionism vs holism
102 options of modelling CS
micro known to produce macro unknown
micro unknown to reproduce macro known
11components of a CS (basic)
Independent varable - usually time
structure - rules of the system
data - serves as an input to the rule
inputs
outputs - how we choose to capture the outcome of the system
12what do we get from CS models
depends on the choices made
can make predictions using validated theories
explore and develope new explanations of empircally observed phenomena
13characteristics of segregation
evenness
exposure
clustering
concentration
centralisation
14evenness
how close the local environment looks like global environment
15exposure
amount on contact with other groups
16quantitative analysis of parable of polygons
mean similarity ratio
17mean similarity ratio
1/N * sum over all agents #similar neighbours/#total neighbours
18Elements of a CS (Michael Small)
simple description
connected
evolving
self organising
emergent
ubiquitous
19matrix representation of the discrete Laplacian for a Moore neighbourhood
0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1 -0.8 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1
diffusion rate of 0.1
9 point stencil = much more random diffusion pattern
20Michael Small CS examples
1. irregular dynamics can be understood if it is chaotic
2. complex systems of componts that behave as a connected network e.g. networks in organisations
3. complex systems of evolving systems e.g. spread of infectious diseases
4. self organisation - critical transitions and tipping points e.g. a power grid
5. simple rules lead to emergent behaviour e.g vieiwng music as a time series
21Euclidean
size
euclidean geom measures size at one particular scale characterisitic of the shape, if the shape is scale-free or involves all scales then Euclidean measurement fails
22symmetries
perform an operation that leaves a shape undetectable different in shape and form
geometcial properties have not changed
23fractal geometry
provide a systematic way to capture the "roughness" or "complexity" of some objects
24fractal properties
self similarity (zoom similarity)
infinite-complexity
fractal dimension (quantifies the roughness)
25types of fractals
classic/strict - exact self similarity, infinite scaling range
statistical - self similarity is approx and extends only a limited range of scales
26the cantor set
strict fractal
start with a line and remove the middle third
repeat for each line - keep repeating
27sierpinski triangle
start with a triangle and remove middle third
create 3 triangles and repeat
keep repeating
28self-similarity dimension
D = - log(#copies)/log(scale factor)
#copies = how many times as big
29if a complex system is naturally occuring it is likely to be...
fractal
30why do we see fractals so often in nature
- recursion, doing same thing over and over again
- growth process will frequently lead to fractals
- fractals are hyper-efficent in their construction e.g. plants maximise exposure to sunlight
31creating fractals methods
initiator and generator
iterated function system
lindenmayer systems
32initiator & generator
initiator = starting object for the construction
generator = how the initiaor changes e.g. divide into 4 congruent replicas and remove the centre replica
33IFS
created by a set of contratcive functions
each initiation adds more points and refines the shape
e.g. Sierpinski triangle
define triangle as 3 points A,B and C
f1 = x+A/2
f2 = x+b/2
f3 = x+c/2
IFS = f1Uf2Uf3
34Lindenmauer Systems
a formal string rewriting system
it is a grammar defines by the tuple G = (V,a,R)
V = alphabet made up of variables and constants
a = starting state
R = rules that define how the variables are replaced
e.g. Cantor Set
V = {F,f}
a = F
R = F --> FfF, f --> fff where F = draw forwards, f = move forward but don't draw
one step = FfF
second step = FfFfffFfF
35self similarity (Fractals)
contains smaller copies or subsets of itself
36infinite complexity
E.g. cantor set
after n iterations we have 2^n line segments, as n approach infinity, 2^n --> inifintiy hence infinite number of pieces in the cantor set
after n iterations the length of each segment = (2L/3)^n, as n-->infinity, (2L/3)^n --> 0
37sierpinski triangle - infinity complexity
perimetre = 3(3/2)^n as n-->infin, perim --> infin
area = (3/4)^nA, as n approach infi, A approaches infin
38hausdorff dimension
takes into account not having exact replicas
D = lim e-->0 logN(e)/log(1/e)
N(e) = # balls with length scale e needed to cover the set X
39box counting dimension
N(e) = C/e^D
can estimate D by plotting e or 1/e and determining the slope
D = logN(e)-logC/-loge
40correlation dimension
takes into account the density of the points (how much coastline in the box) whereas box count equautes all occupies boxes equally
41Use of slime for dark matter modelling
how does the universe evolve
rune large numerical simulation
create a cosmic web --> most of it is dark matter
use slime to test routes between galazies, looked back at paths and found evidence of dark matter
42how do patterns form
spatio-thermal dynamics
typically modelled using PDEs
43Turing Patterns
Interaction between activator and inhibitor morphogens leads to the formation of spatial patters of pigmentations either throuhg the instability of homogeneous states or the formation of spatial gradients
44reaction diffusion systems
interaction of two morphogens that allows for the autonomous generation of spatial patterns during development via a type of symmetry breaking
45elements of a reaction diffusion system
activator
inhibitor
reaction
diffusion (random walks)
regulation
46RDs Activator
slow moving
tells the cells to do something
47RDs Inhibitor
fast moving
tells the cells to slow down activator production
48diffusion
with many particles performing random walks, the particles will slowly spread outwards at a certain rate
49modelling RD PDEs
discretised world
space = grid the comain and bin particles in the grid cells, focus on the particle concentration (U and V)
time = select a sufficently small time step to integrate the system forward
50the diffusion term
slow down the rate of diffusion
if d = 0.1, means only 10% of the central cells concentration will concentrate to the spread at a given time
51moore neighbourhood
include diags
52Numerical approx of Laplacian (diffusion term)
diff^2ij = U(i+1,j) + U(i-1,j) +U(i,j+1) + U(i,j-1) - 4U(i,j)
U= concentration of A
53reaction equation
if rarer if concentration of B (V) is low then make proportion to UV^2
U --> U - UV^2
V --> V + UV^2
assuming collision, reaction occurs with rate r (let r=1)
54Gray-Scott Model
not discretised world
dU/dt = Du*diff^2U + f(1-U)-UV^2
dV/dt = Dv*diff^2V +(k+f)V+UV^2
55Euler Method RDs
U(x,t+changet) = U + changet(dU/dt)
repeat for V
56Sally Thompson
ecosystems sometimes spatially organise - turning like patterns
patterns seem to be indicator of two spanning homogeneous spatial states, often one with life, one without
bifurcation drop = can't get back to sustainable
similarity in pattern does not equal similarity in process
57cellular automata
spatially distributed dynamical systems where both space and time are discrete
worlds are built ona regular and homogeneous spatial grid with one automate resideing at each lattice state
one of the most common modelling tool
able to form large networks of simple components and create complex dynamics from very simple rules
58elements of CA
world
network
distance
state
state transition function/ update rule
59CA world
dimension and size
initial conditions
boundary conditions
60CA State
finite number of states available
often binary --> two state CA
the configuration = the state of all the cells
61Wolfram Elementary CA set up
World = 1D square grid lattice with periodic boundaries
states = binary
initialisation = either random or single black cell in the middle of row of white cells
neighbourhood = central & right and &left
update rule = 2^8 (#choices^#possible neighbour config) 256 possible rule combos
62Wolfram CA rule order
B = 1, W = 0
WWW WWB WBW WBB BWW BWB BBW BBB
calc right to left starting at 2^0
63possible outcomes of the game of life
1. cells die out or become stagnant
2. oscillations between small stable structures
3. cells seem ot come alive and do unusual things
64rule space of morre neighbourhood
# total neighbours = (2r+1)^D
#possible local configurations = K^k^n = K^K^(2r+1)^D
r = radius of neighbourhood
d = dimension of the space
gets very large very quickly
65phase space
cares about the possible configurations of the entire world
L = length of space in each dimension
for reg domain, total # cells = L^D
each cell must be one of k states so K^L^D possible configurations
blows up much less quickly
66wolfram classifications
class 1 = tends to a stable uniform state e.g. all 1s or 0s
class 2 = repeated patterns
class 3 = appear to generate randomess via intricate rested repeats and periodic patterns
class 4 = sits at the boarder of chaos, can propagate info, memory etc.
67reversibility
if every configuration has a unique predecessor then the CA is reversible and the state transiiton functions are bijective
there are no non-trivial reversible elementary CA
game of life is not reversible (contains orphans)
68state transition functions
map a local condition x to its successor y
69state transition diagram
maps a global condition x to its successor y
70metaphysics of ordinary objects
collection of parts and complex structure/arrangement
71computational theory of mind
consciousness determined by computational structure of our brains
72mental approach to human persistence
survual is grounded in continuation of our mental life
73agent based modelling - why is it good?
flexible
easy adoption
adjustment for individial level properties
fairly intutitive
agents can really be defined as anything
74flocking
locally ordered collective motion
75ABM agents
discrete entities that usually have some kind of attributes
they are active or self propelled and move with infinite energy
76to create an ABM model
world - dimensions, obstacles, boundary conditions
agents
possible states of the agents
the initial state
the interaction network (typically locally)
rules for updating agent states
77for ABMs to give meaningful conclusions we need to consider
specific problem solved by the ABM
availability of data and applying to model
method of model validation
78vicsek model
1. initialise domain = square domain with periodic boundary conditions, agentvelocity = a random direcition with constant speed, agentposition = random inside of domain
2. initialise N agents and their attribute
position = a tuple represeting the x and y coord of agent
velocity = a tuple representing the agents current velocity v defined by the heading O and a constant 'speed'
3. determine each agents neighbours
4. average the velocities of each agents' neighbours including self
5. update agents attributes
79order parametres
characterise how ordered the microscopic state of the system is
for vicsek = polarised order parametre = average normalised velocity - ranges from 0 (no order) to 1 (coherent motion)
tells us something about the group behaviour
80hysteresis
the state of the system depends on its history
81george milne - why do we model
understand a physical system - cannot conduct experiments in the physical system
an exercise in approximation
82why use ABMs for disease spread
more realistic model, age specific
health burden outcomes
use what find in model to do economic analysis
we know how to use and build these models