URBS 498 Midtern #1

is persistent, long-term change in the state of the climate, measured by statistically significant changes in the mean state and/or its variability

Drivers can be natural or anthropogenic
When we say “climate change” we mean “anthropogenic climate change”

Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere. Some is absorbed by greenhouse gases and re-emitted in all directions by the atmosphere. The effect of this is to war earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere

Incoming energy- outgoing energy= radiative forcing
Helps us measure the response of global average temperature to different forcing agents

Carbon is the biggest contributor to anthropogenic climate change.
What drives the flows in the carbon cycle?
Photosynthesis, plant respiration and decay, ocean mixing, volcanoes and rock weathering
The level of CO2 continues to increase in the atmosphere, causing climate change.

To hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels

carbon budget:
Tells us how much carbon we can omit and stay under the 1.5C or 2C targets set by the UNFCCC.

remaining carbon budget:
Our remaining carbon budget
In 2022, to have a 67% chance of staying below 1.5C…
9.5 years left
To have a 67% chance of staying below 2C…
36.5 years left

Global average temperature change is essentially irreversible on a century timescale – commitment warming.
Linear relationship between CO2 emissions and global average temperature.
Models show elevated GAT remains constant for centuries even after a cessation of emissions.
We’ll likely see warming continue past 2100.
This means that we are “locked into” some level of climate change.

(Social) Population trends
clear positive relationship between population and emissions

(Social) Wealth
Wealthier households have higher energy demand
Same relationship exists for cities

(Economic) Industrial base
Presence of large manufacturing, construction, industrial production sectors increases energy demand

(Economic) Informality
Emissions from informal activities are generally omitted from emissions accounting.

(Physical) Local environment
There are significant variations in energy demand for heating and cooling

(Physical) Energy systems
How carbon intensive is the energy used to electrify, heat and cool buildings, power transportation, provide water and sanitation, etc.?

(Physical) Building stock
Embodied energy: Building materials and construction
Operational energy: Heating, cooling, lighting

(Physical) Transportation
(Physical) Urban density
Sprawl is happening

It depends.
If growth is accompanied by increases in income + consumption then it can drive up emissions.

More common where urbanization is happening alongside high-emissions economic growth and sprawl.

But, for the same level of consumption and services urban residents can use comparatively less energy because of economies of scale that come with density.

What is the role of local governments in fighting climate change?
Engagement of cities with climate change was initially done on a voluntary basis.
Strategic urbanism: This starts to shift in 2000s, and climate action starts to be seen as a critical issue for cities
Urban climate networks play a key role in governing local climate action

“Climate action planning” is the strategic planning process in which cities develop policies and programs of action to reduce their emissions and/or adapt to impacts of climate change.

Two general approaches:
Stand-alone plans
Integrating climate change into existing comprehensive development plans

Context
European Union has set strong emissions reduction targets in line with the Paris Agreement

Study aims: ​​To identify and explain patterns in which cities are adopting local climate plans in EU countries.

Researchers retrieve stand-alone local climate plans and plans with a strong climate lens and code them into 3 categories:
1. Autonomous climate plans
2. Plans created to respond to national legislation
3. Plans created under leadership from urban climate networks

Results
24/28 EU countries do not require municipalities to produce local climate plans
In 10 of those countries, no cities have autonomously created these plans
Overall, 61% of cities in these countries have not created plans
Although, among cities with populations >500k, 80% have plans

A natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources. (IPCC)

We talk about being “exposed” to a hazard: presence of people, infrastructure, economic/social/cultural assets, or environmental systems in places that could be harmed by hazards

Extreme heat, flooding, sea level rise, storms, permafrost melt, drought, wildfires

Health: Heat is felt more by more vulnerable groups- Elderly more affected, low income may not have AC, those who are socially isolated, poor health

Economy: could lead to loss of economy equally 65,000 jobs

Environment: impacts roads, higher demand on energy systems

2021 western canada heat wave (heat dome)
A heat dome happens when hot air is trapped by high pressure systems in the atmosphere – it “sits” over a region.
Over 600 people died in British Columbia, and it contributed to a bad fire and flood season that year.

Low-emissions pathway: half of the human population will be exposed to periods of dangerous extreme heat by 2100.
High-emissions pathway: three quarters of the population will be exposed to periods of dangerous extreme heat by 2100.

Urban populations further north (e.g. in Europe or Canada) could see twice the level of extreme heat as rural populations.

Fluvial flooding (rivers flooding their banks), pluvial flooding (rainfall), coastal flossing (storms and seal level rise)

Floods are Canada’s most expensive environmental hazard.
About 10% of homes in Canada are at high risk of flooding – that’s about 1.8 million homes!

Sea level rise is driven by:
Thermal expansion of ocean water
Melting ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica)
Melting glaciers and ice caps (especially in the Canadian Arctic!)
NOT melting sea ice or icebergs

Storms

Permafrost melt
Thawing causes major infrastructure damage to buildings, transportation networks, utility lines, etc.

Permafrost feedback
Permafrost melt creates a positive feedback loop in the climate system.
It stores methane and CO2.
Arctic amplification increases northern temperatures

Drought impacts both water quantity and quality.
Creates tensions between users.
Impacts critical infrastructure systems like electricity generation.
Droughts make floods worse

Drought conditions and extreme heat are driving more intense fire events.
Urban sprawl is another major driver of wildfire risk: wildland-urban interface (WUI).
Wildfires are one of the most dangerous and expensive hazards in Canada.

2023 Canadian wildfire season
This is the worst wildfire year on record in Canada.

Key mechanisms driving UHI
Albedo- surface reflectivity
Evapotranspiration- moisture release
Mechanical processes- waste heat

Air pollution
Dense urban areas tend to impact the water cycle
Cities have unique microclimates, and local monitoring of UHI, precipitation, wind, humidity, and air quality are critical.

Health
Infrastructure
Northern infrastructure
Macroeconomy

Broken window fallacy: Spending after climate event can actually help the economy because of creation of jobs and high spending
Low-income households see particularly high income losses
A low emissions future reduces damage costs by half compared to a high emissions future.

And the costs to cities?
Local roads, storm and sewage drains, water treatment, and other utilities will be the most expensive infrastructures to maintain, to upgrade and replace.
Per year, this comes out to about $2 billion in additional costs to municipalities

Analysis of 6 hazards: average temp increase, heavy rainfall, floods (fluvial), heat waves, stroms, droughts

Exposure to hazards: presence of people or things in places that could be affected by hazards

Sensitivity to those hazards: ability of those people or systems to withstand stressors

Capacity to adapt to those hazards: ability of those people or systems to adjust to hazards to reduce harmful outcomes
*adaptive capacity is affected by conditions like: knowledge & skills, access to information, social capital, infrastructure and technology,

Resilience is about the ability of human or natural systems to return to a state of normal functioning after a shock or stress.
Commonly referred to as a desired outcome of adaptation

Common issue of interests – how human and environmental systems handle shocks and stresses.
Origins – resilience came from the study of ecology, vulnerability from the study of disasters.
Resilience is often seen as the opposite of vulnerability, or as an outcome of adaptation.

IVA is a systematic way to identify consequences of climate change, and risks to communities.
Steps in IVA
1. Exposure
2. Sensitivity
3. Potential impacts
4. Adaptive capacity

Which climate change effects should be assessed?

Sources of information on climate change impacts:
Intergovernmental panel on climate change
National government
Regional government
Boundary organizations
Universities

1. What is the difference between current conditions and those projected for 2050 and at the end of the century?
2. How quickly are these changes projected to occur?
3. Where are the changes projected to occur?

Sources of data

Physical assets:
Official development plans
Participatory maps
Oral traditions

Communities:
Census
Local residents
Community groups
Elders and local leaders

Questions:
How large an area and community do impacts effect?
Are impacts likely to be permanent or reversible?
Can the community still function in light of the impact?

Integrate information from Steps 1 and 2 to answer this question.
Indicators of interest:
Numeric measurements of exposed populations
Value of exposed assets
Value of community resources and ecosystem services – tangible or intangible

What resources or barriers do communities and individuals have that reduce vulnerability to impacts?
What policies or actions exist that help deal with climate change impacts?
Adaptive capacity is about AGENCY!

Indicators can systematically capture social and place-based pattern
But vulnerability isn’t something we can directly measures →it’s a theoretical concept, not a physical phenomenon.

Therefore, we need to create an operational definition of vulnerability in order to measure it.

through:
Social systems
Economic systems
Governance systems
Built environment
Natural environment
Governance

Means that risk comes from the interaction between physical exposure to hazards, and social vulnerability.

Hazards-of-place tells us something about the environmental justice dimensions of risk exposure and adaptation.

However, it only tells us something about relative social vulnerability. It doesn’t tell us anything about the absolute levels of vulnerability in a community.

Community-based approaches
Emphasis is on local perspectives and knowledge.
Community asset mapping, Scenario design, Photovoice, Surveys, Focus groups, andInterviews

We care about climate change because of the harms that it causes to people and the planet

The burdens of climate change impacts are not evenly shared

This represents the heart of the injustice of climate change! Those who are the least responsible for the problem are bearing the greatest hard from its consequences

Adaptation that supports vulnerable people and places is essential for achieving climate justice

In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.

As the climate changes we will increasingly face questions about whether we should keep protecting certain area

Retreat can be autonomous or coordinated
Autonomous
Some cities are thinking about how to accommodate people displaced by climate change

Coordinated
Gov programs to move people of assets. Gov buy-out programs

1. Strengthen land use regulations to prevent construction of new infrastructure in at-risk areas
2. Use risk-based management to internalize flood risk into markets

Goal: disincentivize risky behavior by spreading the costs of flood risk reduction to the private sector and individuals

Mechanisms: flood risk insurance requirements and risk disclosure regulations
Example of municipal regulation

Emergency response to heat
1. Detection and prediction of extreme heat event
2. Heat alert and response system
3. Emergency measures

Nature based solutions
Expanding urban tree canopies

Changes to built environment
Cool roof bylaws
Passive cooling requirements
Mechanical cooling requirements

The gov of canada adopted the 1st national adaptation strategy in 2023
A lot of money for infrastructure projects:
Improved flood risks mapping 164M
Ongoing work to update building and infrastructure codes

Identities provincial priorities for emissions reduction and adaptation
Directs 1.5b for adaptation, 730M for municipalities
Adaptation support for municipalities

The assumption that “adaptation is local” is widespread
Vulnerability is contextual
Local actors have local linkages

But what are the issues with this?
Local gov are the weakest level of gov
Is “adaptation is local '' a convenient tool for blame avoidance?

Adaptation limit: the point at which an actor's objectives of system needs cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions

Soft limit: options are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks through adaptive action

Hard limit: no adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks

Maladaptation occurs when people become even more vulnerable to climate change because of poorly thought out adaptation responses

These risks tend to be higher with certain kinds of adaptations
Those that are very-long lasting or permanent
Those that are high cost
Those that reduce flexibility for change

This refers to displacement of groups with low adaptive capacity due to green climate infrastructure investment

Often portrayed as a no-regrets adaptation approach because it creates social benefits

Some argue that it minimizes negative impacts on socially vulnerable residents; that dispossession is inherent in these projects

Shows the need to couple green investments with strong affordable housing protections

Rebounding vulnerability: strategies aimed ata ascertain group that make them more vulnerable than they were before

Shifting vulnerability: strategies that make groups not benefitting from adaptation more vulnerable

Negative externalities: strategies that create new problems for sustainable development