URBS 498 Midterm #2

Top-down accounting: uses atmospheric concentrations of co2 and other emissions to directly estimate emissions

Bottom-up accounting: useless local data on sectors and activities like buildings, transportation, industrial production, agriculture. Often try to capture both direct and indirect emissions

baked on a city’s territory- counts emissions produced within an area that a country has jurisdiction over

includes effects of trade- emissions within a territory and the emissions associated with the initial production of good and services elsewhere

direct emissions from within a city boundaries (buildings, transportation, utilities, etc)

Focus most of the attention on

indirect emissions from energy production (electricity, heating and cooling)

indirect emissions from activities outside city boundaries (eg purchased goods and services, employee commuting, investments, waste)

Largest based- ties into consumption based emissions

Total emissions: tell us something about the overall emissions contributions of a city

Per capita emissions tells us something about the urban conditions and lifestyles of a city
Per person is higher in wealthy countries
Total emissions / total population

Per GDP emissions tells us something about the energy-intensity of a cities economy
Total emissions / per unit of GDP (USD)

Territorial accounting
Measuring what comes directly from an area

Supply chain footprint for community wide infrastructure
Measures emissions generated from vital infrastructure- electricity, transport

Personal carbon footprints
Consumption based

Urban carbon footprints
Consumption based
For entire municipality or urban region

Consumption missions tell us about our carbon footprint
Tells us about the goods and services that city's residents consume
This Is cone by measuring: what's consumed x GHG emissions per unit of consumption

generally 60% higher than territorial estimates

Consumption emissions are not evenly distributed around the world between high and low income cities

We need estimates for each good and service

Life cycle assessment: calculate goods and services emissions from production through to transportation/distribution use and disposal

Input-output model: national data on types of goods and services consumed in a region

Calculation will change over time: supply chains, production processes, tech

So cities use simplified models to general estimates. To do this they need:
spending data
Units of goods and services consumed
Volumes of good or services consumed

Transport, power, goods, food

Consumption patterns differ between cities by factors like urban wealth

Consumption patterns also different within cities based on factors like wealth

Not all consumption is equivalent! Lower-income households tend to have smaller footprints

Using territorial and consumption emissions can give us a more complete picture of a cities emissions

Data availability and limited resources for data collection

There is no global consensus on which inventory protocol to use

Limited verification of self-reported emissions inventories

Cities tend to rely on territorial (production) accounting, it has a few benefits:
Lower data requirements
Can be directly measured
Relevant to city decision-making
Can be aggregated

Canadian cities use this to create their plans
1: creating an inventory
Measure their emissions
Describes methods, assumptions, data, trends

2: setting a target
Set goals that align with IPCC
Multiple time points

3: developing a plan
Describes participation, objectives, actions, costs, roles and responsibilities

4: implementing a plan
Timeline with key milestones

5. Monitoring the impact
Advancing the commitment
Is this working?

Focuses on mitigation with some adaptation

Fact base:
Regional gov structure
Current transportation system
Largest source of emissions
Climate data from montreal's climate change vulnerability assessment

Goal:
Reduce GHG to 55 less than in 1990 and become carbon neutral by 2050

Policies:
to mobilize the montreal community
improve mobility
urban planning
Governance- impose a climate text on all cities decisions to limit GHG
Implementation- plans to assist residents to carry out climate action, businesses receive support

Essential to figuring out where emissions are coming from
Typically report annual total emissions

Decisions to make in creating an inventory
Spatial coverage
Which scope emissions

Inventories are used for forecasting
Based on factors like population growth, job growth, growth in different economic sectors, urban expansion.
Can compare BAU to different reduction targets.

Should be based on climate science, and local context. Often expressed as % reduction in emissions compared to a baseline year. What baseline year should we use?

Original baseline year was 1990
Cities typically choose more than one target year:
short/medium term year
Long term year

land use and zoning powers
- parking spaces
- density

buildings
- deisgn guidelines

infrastructure
- sewage and sanitation
- bike share systems
transportation demand management

corporate operations
- municipal buildings

Municipal regulation: mandates, regulations, development permitting, taxes, fines and development fees

Municipal enabling: public education campaigns, partnering with businesses or NGOs, subsidies

Municipal provision: new infrastructure projects

Municipal self-governing: pilot projects, municipal assets, staff training and education

Create high density, mixed-used nodes within a 5-10 minute walk of high frequency transit stations.
Often necessary to make the business case for higher density development.

Example: Metrotown, Burnaby BC
Located at Metrotown SkyTrain station
Population: +25,000
Employment: +22,000
Commute: 53% of residents use transit to go to work

15 minute city
Similar to “complete communities” and walkable neighborhoods, e.g. from New Urbanism.

26 stations, with 3 points of connection to the Metro.
Led by the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) – Quebec pension fund

Challenge for TOD: disconnected from local and regional land use planning decisions (e.g. CF Fairview Pointe Claire redevelopment), and from the ARTM.
Build it and they will come?

Federal subsidy & loan program for home retrofits to improve energy efficiency

Challenges with the program:
Oversubscribed (a sign of success!)
Accessing licensed evaluators in ruralemote areas

Limitations of the program:
Only benefits homeowners
Only benefits those can afford to pay up front

Grants from 125$ to 5,000$
loans of 5,000 to 40,000

All new buildings must be zero carbon by 2030

Clean Buildings Tax Credit to encourage retrofits in multi-unit buildings
Sales tax exemptions for heat pumps
CleanBC Better Homes Low-Interest Financing Program
CleanBC Building Innovation Fund creates incentives for commercialization of new building technologies, designs, and practices to scale up zero carbon building solutions
Municipalities can set carbon pollution performance standards for new buildings

First of its kind in North America (adopted in 2009).
Requires the installation of green roofs on any new development +2,000 m2 that cover 20-60% surface area.
Developers can also pay cash-in-lieu for constructing a green roof ($200/m2). Benefits: stormwater management, air quality, energy efficiency, UHI reduction, public space improvement Drawbacks: very costly, not suited to all building types, expensive to maintain

Green building certification program created by the U.S. Green Building Council.
Design tool that encourages developers and builders to follow sustainable building practices.
Sometimes mandated in local regulations.
Primarily a voluntary program.

Replacing fossil fuel energy sources with renewable sources.
Renewables include wind, solar, geothermal, (often) hydro – these are energy sources that are naturally replenished in a short period of time.
Cities have limited direct authority over these energy systems, but they can shape energy demand and do some opportunities for direct intervention.

Federally funded, administered through the Federation of Canadian Municipalities.
Low-interest loan program for infrastructure retrofits, replacement, expansion, or installation.
Two aims are improving energy efficiency and uptake of renewable energy (along with improving air and water quality, and environmental protection).

District energy produces energy in a neighborhood energy center, then distributes it through residential, commercial, and institutional buildings to meet hot water and heating demands.
Energy sources can be sewer heat recovery, geothermal heating, wood waste, or waste heat. Vancouver has one of the largest

Emissions reductions come from 1) reducing the amount of solid and water waste being produced and 2) reducing the emissions associated with waste disposal.

Generally speaking, recycling isn’t an effective emissions reduction strategy – it’s actually very energy intensive!

All waste water treated for island
One of largest in world
Want to replace incinerators with a chemical treatment instead
A lot of other upgrades

Create natural gas substitute that can be pumped through same infrastructure
Created with natural waste (methane)→ criticisms: we will never generate enough of this

Many of these emissions are Scope 2, and cities have limited power to influence them.

Much of the emission reductions in industry will come through electrification of energy grids, or the introduction of new technologies.

Some industrial sites are regulated under other levels of government – e.g. ports in Canada are under federal jurisdiction.

Carbon sequestration
Carbon sequestration is about capturing carbon from the and storing in ”carbon sinks”
Most frequently focused on urban tree canopy protection and expansion.

(Population × percent population expected to make the change) × (Baseline × expected percent change from baseline) × GHG emissions of that activity

We have a lot of research demonstrating that compact, mixed used, transit-oriented urban development is essential to lowering urban GHGs.

This is difficult to achieve in existing lower density areas

Transit often doesn’t reach outlying areas with the greatest need for densification.

Key question for planners: can we achieve emissions benefits from higher density urban development even in the absence of rapid transit?

The authors find that cities can achieve emissions reductions in residential development even if there aren’t rapid transit options in a neighbourhood.

East Clayton: A low/medium-density suburban neighbourhood that mix SF homes with townhouses and small apartment buildings → 22% lower emissions compared to baseline neighbourhood

Coquitlam Town Centre: A high density, car dependent neighbourhood adjacent to a suburban town centre → 50% lower emissions compared to baseline neighbourhood.

False Creek North: A high density, centrally-located neighbourhood originally built without access to transit → 70% lower emissions compared to baseline neighbourhood.

Climate policy integration is about ensuring that goals are coherent, and policies are working together.

This involves a few things:
Making sure that we see how these issues are interconnected
Involving stakeholders for all related sectors in the planning process
Making sure that our policies take into account policies in related sectors

So instead of thinking about adaptation & mitigation in silos, we see them as inter-related issues.

This follows the logic of co-benefits:
Adaptation with mitigation co-benefits
Mitigation with adaptation co-benefits

And minimizing or avoiding maladaptation and risky mitigation.

Energy efficiency standards for new and existing buildings. Design criteria cover everything from:
Heating and cooling systems
Ventilation systems
Building materials and insulation

Planned passive town in Vancouver (”Curve”) slated for construction in 2023-2028. It will be the tallest passive building in the world.

Benefits for:
Energy demand
Thermal comfort
Stormwater management
Biodiversity
Air quality
Carbon sequestration

Well-established inequities in urban green space.

Electricity grids that can power a building or community when not connected to the electricity grid.
Can be integrated into larger electrical grid or standalone.
Emphasis now is on solar and wind powered microgrids.

Benefits
Zero emissions energy source
Avoid power supply disruptions
Reduce risk of peak overloads
Rural electrification

Climate resilience, Lower air pollution, Active transportation,Reduce urban sprawl, Cost savings, Energy conservation, Improved water quality, Job creation, Improved quality of life, Community development

Trade-offs: Occur when mitigation/adaptation measures have negative impacts on each other.

Urban densification → exposure to UHI or flooding
Urban greening → reduced density and lengthened commute times.
Mechanical cooling → increased energy demand

Trade-offs can be managed through good planning.

Conflicts: Occur when mitigation/adaptation measures are incompatible, often due to physical space limitations.
Urban growth boundaries can reduce emissions and sprawl, but concentrate populations in high-risk areas.

mitigation
- global
- about shifting energy production and consumption
- can directly measure emissions

Adapatations
- place-based
- reducing vulnerability and imporving resilience
- have no single metric

Scenario planning – modelling different futures:
Business-as-usual scenario
Adaptation scenario – e.g. decentralized and lower-density
Mitigation scenario – e.g. compact and mixed use
Combined scenario - e.g. varying levels of density and green open space
C40 AMIA tool – this is useful for your final projects!

What does the future of the city look like in a changed climate?
How do urban planning and policies shape our vulnerability in a changing climate?
Who are we planning for?
Who is represented in climate action planning?

4 characteristics

Time is running out

Those seeking to end the problem are also causing it

Every concerned person trying to reduce climate change has contributed to climate change

No central authority

Policies discount the future irrationally
key challenge that militates against behavior change is the size of the short-term discount rate, which makes individuals heavily weight consumption now

Some good news:
The rate of GHG growth is slowing, from 2.6% per year from 2000-2009 to 1.1% per year in 2010-2019.
35 countries peaked their emissions (mainly in Europe and the US), mostly by fuel switching from coal to gas an energy efficiency gains.

And some bad news:
Average GHG emissions in the past decade were the highest ever.
74 countries have increased emissions.
Seeing an increase in coal use in countries like China and India.

These are pledges that governments make to the UNFCCC under their Paris Agreement obligations.

Submitted every 5 years to the UNFCCC - countries were supposed to submit new NDCs by 2021.

1.5C target requires reaching 33 GtCO2 by 2030.
2C target requires reaching 41 GtCO2 by 2030.

Current policy scenario: 58 GtCO2 in 2030
Emissions gap for 1.5C: 23 GtCO2 – 20 GtCO2
Emissions gap for 2C: 15 GtCO2 – 12 20 GtCO2
(Unconditional – conditional)

looks at adaptation literature worldwide

Adaptation is emerging in most regions, particularly in Africa and Asia.
Most research focuses on food security (particularly agricultural production).
Urban adaptation is mostly found in the Global North – Canada, Europe, US.

Most adaptation responses address precipitation-related hazards:
Precipitation variability (44%)
Drought (53%)
Extreme rainfall & flooding (43%)

Extreme heat is another major hazard (28%)

Most adaptation is being led at a very local level:
Individuals/households (82%)
Local governments (36%)
Localegional civil society organizations (26%)
National governments are involved in about 36% of observed adaptation response.

Very little adaptation observed from private sector actors – adaptation is largely happening as a government-led activity!

Technological/infrastructural
Institutional
Behavioral/cultural
Nature-based solutions

Climate action plans can only be effective if they’re implemented.
How can cities improve their chances of success?
1. Build a broad basis of engagement
2. Integrate a climate lens in all municipal work
3. Find/create a “climate champion.” In Montréal, this is the director of the Office of Ecological Transition.

need for:
Accountability
Learning
Better decision-making

Mandates for M&E often follow from commitments in plans, or government requirements.

There’s no single way to do M&E:
Progress reports
Indicators or qualitative information
Regular risk and vulnerability assessments

Need to clarify who is responsible for M&E
Findings need to be communicated in a relevant format
Completion of M&E activities need to feed into planning processes
M&E needs to be frequent enough to be relevant to major decision making moments

M&E is often left to the very end of the planning process. It should be integrated into every step of the planning process by:
Creating goals and targets that are trackable.
Identifying data sources of measuring outputs and outcomes during research.
Aligning M&E cycle with implementation timeline.
Monitoring both plan implementation and outcomes.

There is no single definition of a wicked problem.
Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad.
Every wicked problem can be considered a symptom of another problem.
How we explain the problem will determine how we try to solve the problem.


why climate action is so difficult